This sort of "my prediction is flipping with 2 hours left" is almost guaranteed to make me look dumb because (a) I posted my optimism a that a Gray trade would happen based on (maybe over-reading) some tea leaves two days ago, and (b) a trade easily could still happen by 4pm, making 2pm pessimism look silly. Whatever; this isn't the first time I've looked dumb, and it won't be the last time, so I'm not going to let any remaining shards of my pride get in the way of mouthing off here.
Andrew Marchand has been pounding the drum that the Yankees should trade for Gray, but his tone has taken two darker turns today -- and while some Yankees fans love to hate Marchand (I sometimes do myself), he's a professional reporter whose contacts mean he knows inside twists and turns that we civilians don't. So I take signs of pessimism from him as a real hint that the odds of a deal are trending down.
First, late this morning, he pounded out a "REALLY Cashman you need to do this" Tweetstorm. He publishes real articles regularly, including on the plusses of a Gray trade, so why put out a sudden eight-Tweet brief in favor of something you've already argued -- unless you think it looks like it's not happening?
Second, at noon, he got downright pissy -- about the Yankees over-rating Esteval Florial, the guy Cashman is rumored to be unwilling to give up in a Gray trade:
I don't mean to over-read the tea leaves again here. Marchand may be getting excessively pessimistic. Or he may not know the very latest confidential Cashman-Beane negotiations. But take it for what it's worth: a pretty in-the-know reporter, one who's been pro-trade, suddenly -- in the last hours before the trade deadline -- shifted from standard trade-boosterism to pleading in detail, then to mockery. Not a good sign if you want this trade to happen.