Typically for Brian Cashman’s front office, we have not heard much about the Yankees plans for this offseason, other than that they are trying to shop Brett Gardner. As far as I can tell, the Yankees have not been directly connected to Heyward, although some have noted how well hit fits on the team.
Let’s review the case for Jason Heyward, quickly:
Heyward has produced 6.5, 3.4 (5.3 over 150 games), 5.2 and 6.0 fWAR over the past four seasons. He has been a remarkably consistent offensive player, with wRC+s of 121, 120, 110, and 121 over that time period. He was the 7th best hitter in baseball by fWAR over that time period, just ahead of Robinson Cano and Paul Goldschmidt. Among outfielders, only Mike Trout and Andrew McCutcheon were better.
Heyward’s performance is somewhat controversial given that a great deal of his production relies on defense. He has averaged 18.3 UZR/150 over his career. In terms of defensive fWAR, Heyward is 5th in baseball over the last four years behind Lorenzo Cain, JJ Hardy Yadier Molina, and Andrelton Simmons with 58.9 runs saved.
How Heyward Breaks the ‘Zombie Team’ Problem
Heyward is the youngest elite free agent to actually hit the market in a long time. He won’t turn 27 until August of next season. A ten-year contract will take him only through his age-35 season. I tried searching for the last MLB free agent to be this good and this young, and I couldn’t find anyone in recent memory.
Here’s what an aging curve for a player like Heyward looks like, via BTBS:
Most elite free agents hit the market around the age 29-31 marks. At that point, the average elite player’s decline has already started, and is about to get very steep. We’ve seen that with players like Robinson Cano (free agent at 31) and Jacoby Ellsbury (free agent at 30), who hit the steep part of their declines almost instantly after signing the big contract. Continue reading Jason Heyward is Perfect for the Yankees. Here’s How He Breaks the ‘Zombie Roster’ Problem.