The word of the day is “stupid,” as in Brian Cashman trying not to be stupid at the winter meetings, or in the offseason in general. And, for the most part, “stupid” appears to be a stand in for “signing C.J. Wilson.” Here’s ESPN’s Andrew Marchand’s take this morning:

To me, Brian Cashman is right. You can’t do something, just to do something. You look at someone like C.J. Wilson and it just screams as if for $80 or $100 million it will be a “stupid” move.

Sigh. Look, I’m okay with not being interested in C.J. Wilson. Whether it’s because he walks too many guys, has a questionable throwing motion, or just a lack of confidence in his abilities over the next 5 years or so, I can’t blame a team that doesn’t want to make a big commitment to the guy. Especially the Yankees, if they really want to get their payroll under control.

But let’s be clear, the team that does sign C.J. Wilson won’t be doing anything stupid.

First of all, let’s establish the market, and grant that starting pitching isn’t cheap. Three years ago, the Yankees gave A.J. Burnett an $82.5 million contract. Two years ago the Red Sox gave John Lackey $82.5 million plus a conditional 2015 option. Would paying Wilson at the same level really be such a bad move?

Since Wilson has two seasons as a starter under his belt, let’s compare the last two years of each pitcher before signing their contracts. In 2007-08, Burnett posted a 3.92 ERA in 388 innings pitched for the Blue Jays. In 2008-09, Lackey gave the Angels 339 innings while pitching to a 3.80 ERA. Wilson? In the past two seasons he’s pitched to a 3.14 ERA over 427 innings. And far from being an empty ERA, Wilson posted an FIP- of 81 in 2010, and 76 in 2011. That last number puts Wilson on par with Lackey’s best seasons in terms of fWAR, which came in 2005-07, years before he signed his contract.

In other words, if a team signs Wilson for $80 million, it won’t be “stupid.” It’ll be a bargain.

Today is the first full day of the Winter Meetings, and we’ve already seen one big free agent finalize a deal with a new team. This is the week we expect the Hot Stove season to really kick into full gear, with team officials and agents all in the same place. Maybe more so than free agent signings, the winter meetings are the place a surprise trade may go down, with so many general managers in close proximity. The Yankees are making noise about not being very active, and indeed Brian Cashman isn’t even arriving until today, but here’s a few rumors involving the Yankees all the same.

(click “view full post” to continue reading)

In yesterday’s Post, Joel Sherman reported that the Yankees have decided to be budget conscious, and plan to trim payroll to $189 million by 2014. While the number looks a bit arbitrary, it’s actually a pretty important number thanks to the new CBA. Here’s the nuts-and-bolts:

For if they are at $189 million or less for the three seasons from 2014-16, they not only avoid paying one cent in luxury tax, which would rise to 50 percent for them as repeat offenders, but they also would get roughly $40 million in savings via the to-be-implemented market disqualification revenue sharing program. However, only teams under the luxury-tax threshold get reimbursed in this program, which is designed to prevent big markets such as Toronto and Washington from receiving revenue sharing dollars, which in turn will lower how much teams such as the Yanks pay (as long as they are under the threshold).

And even if they just went under $189 million for 2014 before going over again in 2015, the Yankees would receive serious benefits. They would get about $10 million in the revenue sharing disqualification program. Also, by simply going under the threshold once, the Yankees would go back to having a 17.5 percent tax rather than the 50 percent that begins in 2014 for them if they never go under.

In other words, if the Yankees trim their payroll below the $189 million mark, they’ll stand to make a lot of money by reducing their revenue sharing payments and easing their luxury tax burden the next year. It’s a logical course to take given the money involved, and though it’s a bit of a new concept for some Yankee fans, not handing out inflated contracts for players they either wildly overpay (Alex Rodriguez) or flat out don’t really need (Rafael Soriano) is something they ought to strive to be doing anyway. Though given the fact that those contracts have mostly been driven by ownership since Brian Cashman took over the baseball operations shop, it will be interesting to see how long these spending targets hold up if the Yankees aren’t making any big acquisitions.

(click “view full post” to continue reading)